Fair Deal?

How fair is this potential deal?





Team 1 Gets: Mike Napoli, C - LAA and Chris Duncan, OF - STL


Team 2 Gets: Raul Ibanez, OF - SEA





What is the true value of the two outfielders? Will Duncan really hit 30 homers like the projections say?

Fair Deal?
Duncan hit 21 homers in 375 at bats last year as a starter against mainly righties. He batted .271 with 20 of his 21 HRs against righties. The problem is, that he batted .213 against lefties and he will face a lot more lefties than he faced last year (since he is a full time starter in left field) and he only had 80 ABs against lefties last season. Expect him to not hit homers at the same rate against lefties, and so the 30 HRs asked about is unlikely, but possible. He might actually have a worse BA then last year, but I do expect between 25-30 HRs. The RBIs are his real value as 70 RBIs in 375 ABs make me hope that in 630 ABs will make his RBIs sky over 100.





Napoli is an average catcher who hits .247 and had 10 HRs. I don't touch that. Give me a young guy with upside (Towles, Doumit) over Napoli.





Ibanez is fantasy gold compared to Napoli and Duncan. His batting average is .280 or better in the last 3 years and it continues to get better (.291 last year). He went down from 33 HRs to 21, and went from 123 to 105 in RBIs, but at least you know the power and potiential is there (he did have 50 less at bats as well). It seems everyone is always down on this guy, but I like Ibanez better than Duncan for sure.
Reply:probably fair. i like Ibanez. Napoli hasn't lived up to his hype and I doubt Duncan hits more than 25 hr. Plus he'll have low average. Ibanez might his 20, with good average and 100 rbi.

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